5)
What is the most difficult challenge facing humanity in that time?
Hugo de
Garis: Facing up to what I call the "artilect issue", i.e.
should we or should we not build artilects. Will it be possible to
avoid a gigadeath war over this issue? The human group in favour of
building them I call the "Cosmists", based on the word cosmos, because
the Cosmists will take a cosmic perspective on the issue. They will
see the "big picture" and understand that one godlike artilect is
"worth a trillion trillion trillion human beings". The "Terrans",
based on the world terra (the earth), is the name I give to the second
human group, who are opposed to the creation of artilects, due to
the risk that the existence of artilects will pose to humanity's survival.
The only way to be sure that this risk is not taken is that the Cosmists
never be allowed to build artilects in the first place. In the limit
the Terrans will destroy the Cosmists if the latter start building
them. The Cosmists in turn will anticipate this and will defend themselves
against the Terrans. You will thus have all the makings of a major
war in which billions die. Last century several hundred million people
were killed for political reasons (wars, purges, genocides, etc).
This century, given that the stake is higher, the passion level will
be higher, and with 21st century weaponry, the number of dead will
be in the billions - gigadeath. I am very pessimistic about the outcome
of the artilect debate, which will be raging within a few years. In
a decade people will be seeing with their own eyes the constantly
growing artificial intelligence of their household robots. Everyone
will be asking the question - "Where is all this growing A.I. headed?
Will we allow the machines to become smarter than us? Should there
be a limit to their artificial intelligence? Should A.I. be stopped?
Can it be stopped?" Personally I think the momentum pushing towards
the construction of artilects is so strong that it will not be stopped
until Terran opposition is so strong that a war erupts. I just don't
see a way out of this terrible scenario. Part of me is Terran. That's
why I'm trying to warn humanity before artilects are a fait accompli.
On the other hand, I'm a Cosmist. I think it would be a cosmic tragedy
if humanity chooses to freeze evolution at the puny human level when
we could build artilectual gods. I'm prepared to take the risk of
a gigadeath war so that artilects can be built. Building artilects
is a kind of religion to me, one compatible with science, in fact
one based on science and fit for the 21st century, providing inspiration,
awe, and a direction to millions of human souls. A lot of people think
that we are living in a golden era now that the cold war is over.
The planet seems to have settled on a more or less uniform global
ideology of capitalistic parliamentary democracy. Democracy is spreading
all over the planet. Unfortunately, I foresee humanity being torn
apart again as the century progresses, this time by the artilect issue,
the greatest challenge to human survival and the toughest decision
humanity will ever have to make. "Do we build gods, or do we build
our potential exterminators?"
Richard
Wheeler: Without going too far ahead, I would say that the
environment and the discrepancy between the first and third worlds
is the most difficult challenge facing humanity in the last (and probably
next) 100 years. Science in the popular press gives us the impression
that the whole world is grappling with highly advanced and esoteric
issues about the future of technology, communications, and the web,
and that space exploration, genetic engineering, and nanotechnology
are the most important challenges of the day. The truth is that the
two biggest problems facing the world (overwhelmingly) are the lack
of sufficient water purification and sanitation methods. Our pride
filled tunnel vision perception of the 20th century as a time of innovation,
advancement, and scientific triumph should surely be secondary to
a basic recognition of the period as an unprecedented pageant of greed,
war, ethnic conflict, and destruction. The most profound question
of the next 100 years will likely be how to balance a wildly skewed
and barbaric world economy so that it (and the human race) can continue
to function. It may not be in our nature to resolve this question,
as human greed, corruption, and stupidity remains relatively constant
and independent of technology.
6)
What do you consider the greatest invention or discovery of the last
100 years?
Hugo de
Garis: Probably the hydrogen bomb. Thanks to its existence
and the threat of everyone dying in a nuclear winter, we have not
had a major war in half a century, which has allowed the world population
to concentrate on improving living standards and world health.
[Shebang
asked Hugo de Garis to expand on this:]
Hugo de
Garis: The hydrogen bomb in itself is a horrible "gadget",
but the consequences of its existence have been very positive so far,
due to the lack of a major war for the past half century. Politicians
of leading nations know that if ever there is a nuclear holocaust,
they will probably be killed themselves, either by the bombs of the
other side, or by their own surviving citizens in a political witch-hunt.
In WW1 and WW2 it was easy for the generals to send young men to their
deaths at the front, while they sat back safely at HQ. In an H bomb
war, the HQs are amongst the targets.
Richard
Wheeler: Probably the use of chlorine and chemical methods
for water purification, and the discovery of antibiotics and formalised
chemotherapy in medicine. After that, perhaps advances in physics,
mathematics, cartography, and logistics.
7)
Do you think there is life on other planets?
Hugo de
Garis: I would say that this is a certainty, given there are
probably a trillion trillion planets out there and that the laws of
physics and chemistry are the same throughout the universe.
Richard
Wheeler: I think it would be impossibly narrow-minded and
obscure to imagine that we are the only life forms to emerge from
such vastness. In the last ten years we have discovered water on the
moon, and possible life on Mars. The truth is, we know very little
about the conditions necessary for life, even within our own solar
system, let alone what might exist in the rest of the galaxy. As they
say, the strongest indication that extra-terrestrial life exists is
that none of it has tried to contact us.
8)
Do you believe machines can ever achieve consciousness?
Hugo de
Garis: Yes. Human beings are molecular machines, as is any
biological creature. Human beings get built according to an embryological
unfolding process as dictated by our DNA. Hence our DNA implicitly
contains the solution to the problem of the nature of consciousness,
since it builds us and we are conscious. Therefore we need only study
ourselves to find a solution to this problem. We know that a solution
exists because we have the existence proof of ourselves. Once we understand
how consciousness is built by nature, we can copy its mechanisms and
then build machines with consciousness. It's only a question of time
and scientific progress I believe.
Richard
Wheeler: Consciousness is one of the hottest topics in A.I.
and cognitive science right now, with many controversial and interesting
theories arising. I don't think we know anything about human consciousness
yet, let alone machine consciousness. However, I will throw my own
thoughts into the fray. I think everything in the universe has its
own form of consciousness - its own perception of time and information
flowing through it. As such, machines may have their own consciousness
(perhaps already evident), which we are unable for perceptual reasons
to see; this may be one of the great mistakes in A.I. and cognitive
science - to investigate consciousness from a purely human point of
view; surely it is a much broader phenomenon. The hunt for the "ghost
in the machine" is an on-going obsession for many people, as its discovery
may signal the last moment where humankind is dominant on the planet,
and like them, I hope to see the day when machine intelligence evolves
into a meta-conscious state.